Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 14.381088 16.416835 18.600214 21.111647 23.916042 26.946509 30.464316
2025-08-31 11.218623 13.961932 17.125706 21.026052 25.685660 31.053395 37.683174
2025-09-07 9.648942 12.695379 16.375309 21.113940 27.016503 34.086281 43.150152
2025-09-14 8.663697 11.976710 16.145600 21.721786 28.922516 37.838909 49.636611
2025-09-21 7.590087 10.974155 15.392380 21.506082 29.656599 40.047627 54.178720
2025-09-28 6.453852 9.748329 14.205903 20.578195 29.334809 40.809649 56.820352
2025-10-05 6.017713 9.431891 14.192202 21.184583 31.037207 44.243002 63.058800
2025-10-12 5.588124 9.073026 14.072400 21.606262 32.473770 47.348703 68.956994
2025-10-19 5.056017 8.504472 13.594160 21.460923 33.073398 49.297327 73.313024
2025-10-26 4.574650 7.963650 13.104905 21.247011 33.533216 51.035403 77.407277
2025-11-02 4.210102 7.570186 12.800652 21.273942 34.323019 53.247792 82.230994
2025-11-09 3.913476 7.257613 12.592279 21.421297 35.280670 55.719483 87.498568
2025-11-16 3.591118 6.879373 12.260858 21.367560 35.947918 57.822605 92.364809
2025-11-23 3.276663 6.485226 11.872582 21.193124 36.410238 59.629592 96.855623
2025-11-30 3.050584 6.223810 11.679707 21.312891 37.324064 62.134120 102.461391
2025-12-07 2.927791 6.138381 11.776885 21.914380 39.032466 65.920150 110.155677
2025-12-14 2.683489 5.801949 11.410770 21.700995 39.385351 67.582960 114.595969
2025-12-21 2.355174 5.271187 10.657549 20.764344 38.474455 67.183670 115.753725
2025-12-28 2.276761 5.226273 10.781374 21.376034 40.203152 71.087430 123.886026
2026-01-04 2.178134 5.130825 10.802953 21.800874 41.622985 74.529643 131.377799
2026-01-11 2.014872 4.885455 10.522596 21.654448 42.033425 76.310904 136.210454
2026-01-18 1.857469 4.636895 10.216882 21.438821 42.303499 77.855932 140.690180
2026-01-25 1.740211 4.464294 10.046945 21.465973 43.003112 80.141864 146.464360